Commodity Outlook & Situation Analysis (COSA)

Vision:
To be pioneer in dissemination of information for benefit of the farmers & agricultural extension officers.

Mission:
To provide timely, relevant & reliable information of major agricultural commodities to take better decisions & maximizing farm income to achieve sustainability.

Objectives:
1. To develop an integrated commodity information system to gathers information from different sources for in - depth analysis.
2. To compile the analyzed information & provide updates on major agricultural commodities.
3. To facilitate reduction in asymmetric information and increased efficiency across commodity value chain.


Methodology

NEWS:
A compilation of major news items relating to the overall farm sector and selected commodities covered under News. Commodity wise most important & relevant news have been collected from various renowned & reliable newspapers such as The Hindu Business Line, Economic Times, Times of India, Business Standard, Tribune India etc.

PACKAGE OF PRACTICES:
Essentially, the objective is to increase the crop productivity by intensive cultivation through promotion of recommended agriculture technologies and package of practices. The improved package of practices have been given from following sources.
Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/ & http://nfsm.gov.in/

COST OF CULTIVATION:
The cost and returns for each commodity was calculated by using information from Commission on Agricultural Costs and Prices. The deflated cost and returns has been calculated by using data 2013-14 for 2017-18. Costs include all cash expenses and family labour. These are state averages, actual cost and returns of farmers may vary. Scale of finance includes average of major districts in given states which is fixed by the District Level Technical Committee (DLTC).

PRICES:
The price projections has been calculated by using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in R- Software. Major producing states for each commodity. The Price Forecasting has been analyzed the last 11 years of monthly prices prevailed in respective major producing state. The monthly data has been collated from AGMARKNET. According to the results farmers are advised to take note of the given advisory before harvesting their produce and take selling decision accordingly. This forecast is based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be the same as forecasted.

MSP:
The Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for Kharif Crops of 2016-17 Season based on recommendations of Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) for the Price Policy for Kharif Crops for the Marketing Season 2015-16. CACP takes into account the cost of production, overall demand-supply, domestic and international prices, inter-crop price parity, terms of trade between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, the likely effect of the Price Policy on the rest of economy, besides ensuring rational utilization of production resources like land and water, while recommending MSPs. The CACP being the expert body, its recommendations are generally accepted as such. However, in view of a large surplus or huge deficit, the Cabinet made an exception and decided to give a bonus over and above the recommendations of the CACP. This is expected to give a strong price signal to farmers whether to increase or decrease acreage and invest for increase in productivity of crop.
Source: http://cacp.dacnet.nic.in

STATEWISE WEATHER:
In order to provide state wise weather advisories to the farming community of the country state wise crop weather advisories have been prepared from Division of Agricultural Meteorology.
Source: http://www.imdagrimet.gov.in

PRICE TRENDS:
We examine price trends in the major markets based on the information available from AGMARKNET. We also review the trends available at the wholesale and retail level in different domestic markets and nationally based on data available from the various official sources. The reports also provide an assessment of the short term price scenarios.